Pubs likely to be decimated

A study by Oxford Economics commissioned by the a number of hospitality organisations has concluded that 11,750 pubs and bars will shut with the loss of 290,000 jobs if restrictions on the number of people allowed into venues continues to be restricted die to social distancing. It found that nearly eight in ten pubs were operating at less than 75% capacity.

The report was published before the 22:00 curfew was imposed and consequently there is no assessment of its impact. It seems compelling to conclude that it is likely to sound the death knell for many struggling local pubs. Even without the effect of the curfew it is estimated that the economy will lose £7bn through lost taxes on lost sales.

Emma McClarkin, CEO of the British Beer & Pub Association, made the point that when the virus is eventually defeated the pub and club sector will play a large part in driving the economy back to some semblance of normality and helping the nations GDP to recover.

About 13,000 pubs shut between 2001 and 2018 but there was a hint a stabilisation before the pandemic struck.